SHIB Forms Double-Bottom Pattern: A 194% Rally or a False Signal?
Shiba Inu (SHIB) has recorded a sharp 20% decline over the past month, trading at $0.0000116 as of June 19. Despite the bearish trend and declining trading volumes, emerging whale activity and a developing double-bottom chart pattern suggest a potential reversal. This analysis blends real-time data, technical patterns, and whale behavior to assess SHIB’s outlook for both short-term traders and long-term crypto investors.
Market Overview: A Sharp Decline in a Slowing Sector
The meme coin sector has witnessed a notable slowdown in investor interest through Q2 2025, with Shiba Inu (SHIB) among the most affected. Over the last 30 days, SHIB’s price has tumbled approximately 20%, accompanied by a 16% decline in daily trading volume — now sitting at $128 million. These figures underscore a waning appetite for speculative altcoins amid broader market consolidation and risk-off sentiment in the crypto economy.
Yet beneath the surface, some signals hint at a shift. On-chain whale activity, token burn acceleration, and a possible double-bottom pattern forming on the SHIB/USD chart indicate that market makers might be positioning ahead of a breakout.
Technical Outlook: A Bullish Pattern Amidst Bearish Price Action
Shiba Inu is currently exhibiting signs of a double-bottom technical pattern—a formation typically seen at the end of a downtrend that signals a potential reversal. SHIB has bounced twice in the $0.00001154 to $0.00001170 price range, forming a clear “W” shape over the past three weeks.
Key Technical Metrics (as of June 19, 2025):
- Price: $0.0000116
- Volume: $128 million (24h, down 16%)
- Resistance Zone: $0.0000126 – $0.0000130
- Support Zone: $0.0000112 – $0.0000105
- Fibonacci Targets (if breakout occurs): $0.0000165 → $0.000033
The key to validating the double-bottom lies in SHIB’s ability to break above the $0.0000126–$0.0000130 resistance zone with sustained volume. Failing this, SHIB may remain range-bound or retest deeper supports near $0.0000095.
Whale Accumulation: Smart Money Moves Quietly
Despite declining retail interest, large holders—colloquially referred to as “whales”—appear to be capitalizing on SHIB’s weakness. Over the past ten days, on-chain data shows a net accumulation of approximately 1.3 trillion SHIB tokens, equivalent to over $15 million at current prices.
Blockchain analytics reveal:
- A 530 trillion SHIB net increase in whale-held wallets since January 2025.
- Recent accumulation correlating with the double-bottom’s second trough.
- Decrease in exchange-held SHIB, suggesting reduced sell pressure and increased cold wallet holdings.
These movements may indicate institutional or high-net-worth investors positioning early for a longer-term shift.
Tokenomics & Burn Mechanics: A Deflationary Foundation
SHIB’s token burn mechanism continues to play a key role in its deflationary appeal. On June 18 alone, 537 million SHIB tokens were permanently removed from circulation, representing a 34.8% daily spike in burn rate. Over the past month, the average daily burn ratio has hovered around 0.42% of SHIB’s total daily trading volume.
While the burn volume remains relatively modest in relation to total supply (currently over 589 trillion tokens), it contributes to long-term supply constriction—especially if paired with growing on-chain utility.
Ecosystem Fundamentals: Shibarium, ShibDAO & DeFi Push
The Shiba Inu team has made strategic strides in strengthening its ecosystem, most notably through Shibarium—a Layer-2 blockchain aimed at reducing gas fees and expanding scalability for decentralized apps (dApps).
Key updates include:
- Shibarium Alpha Layer: Recently integrated FHE (Fully Homomorphic Encryption) through a partnership with Zama, a privacy-preserving computing firm.
- ShibDAO Launch (May 29): A governance framework that introduces staking, voting, and decentralization incentives.
- DeFi Performance: Despite ecosystem innovation, Shibarium’s Total Value Locked (TVL) has declined by ~23% since April, with DEX volume contraction suggesting slow adoption.
While these upgrades lay technical groundwork, the project must increase active user participation to sustain investor confidence.
Proprietary Analysis: What the Data Tells Us
Our internal modeling, combining trading patterns with whale movement and ecosystem metrics, reveals a nuanced picture:
| Indicator | Value | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Whale Net Accumulation | +530T SHIB (YTD) | Long-term positioning, possible rally |
| Daily Volatility (5-day ATR) | ~3% | Moderate — tradable swings |
| Burn Volume (Jun 18) | 537M SHIB | Supply reduction pressure |
| Liquidity Drop-Off | –16% daily volume | Caution in retail sentiment |
| Wallet Concentration (Top 0.15%) | ~58% of total supply | High centralization risk |
Scenarios & Strategic Forecast
Based on current trends and pattern formation, here are the likely short-term scenarios:
Bullish Case:
- Trigger: Breakout above $0.0000126 with strong volume
- Target: $0.0000165 initially, stretching up to $0.000033 if momentum sustains
Neutral/Sideways:
- Trigger: Failure to break resistance; holding above $0.0000112
- Range: $0.0000095 – $0.0000140
Bearish Case:
- Trigger: Breakdown below $0.0000110
- Target: $0.0000095, possibly revisiting $0.0000085
Final Thoughts: Is SHIB Nearing a Turning Point?
Shiba Inu’s 20% monthly decline is part of a broader correction in speculative digital assets. Yet, unlike many meme coins fading into obscurity, SHIB continues to evolve its infrastructure while attracting long-term whale investors.
If the double-bottom pattern plays out and ecosystem adoption follows, SHIB could see a sharp rebound. However, without meaningful volume and user participation, even favorable technicals may fail to drive a breakout.
For now, SHIB remains in a critical holding pattern. Investors should monitor volume breakouts, whale netflows, and Shibarium’s user activity to determine whether the asset will remain a speculative token or mature into a viable Web3 participant.