Stock Markets Consolidate Ahead of the Holidays
A lull is expected on the financial markets today due to a shortened trading week related to the Easter holiday celebrations.
It is reasonable to assume that traders will get a “breather” after a news-heavy April, which caused a volatile “shakeout” in the stock markets.
US Stock Markets
On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was both cautious and somewhat aggressive in his forecasts regarding US monetary policy, stating that Trump’s tariffs could delay the achievement of inflation targets.
In response, US President Donald Trump accused Powell of “playing politics”, hinting at his possible dismissal.
European Stock Markets
On Thursday, the ECB cut interest rates for the seventh time in the past 12 months, and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde left the door open for further easing.
Analysts had expected a rate cut from 2.65% to 2.40%, so the financial markets reacted relatively calmly to the ECB’s decision.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen)
On the charts of European and US stock indices today, a narrowing triangle pattern is forming, indicating a balance between supply and demand — in other words, price is more efficiently factoring in all influencing elements.
On the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), the triangle is highlighted in grey. The ADX and ATR indicators are trending downwards, which underlines signs of consolidation.
From a bearish perspective, the market is in a downtrend (marked by the red trend channel) — but from a bullish point of view, price is in the upper half of the channel.
Although the situation appears “reassuring”, the long weekend may bring a string of high-impact statements from the White House, which could disrupt the balance and lead to a breakout from the triangle.
It is not out of the question that the bulls may seize the initiative and challenge the upper boundary of the channel in an attempt to lay the groundwork for an upward trend (shown in blue lines).