Bitcoin Gains Ground as Trade War-Proof Asset with Long-Term Investment Value
Amid recent turbulence in global financial markets, Bitcoin is demonstrating a trend of decoupling from technology stocks. Historically, Bitcoin’s price has closely tracked the Nasdaq 100 Index, exhibiting a strong correlation. However, as of Friday, April 5, 2025, Bitcoin rose approximately 1% to $83,300, while the Nasdaq 100 Index declined for a second consecutive day due to the impact of new tariff policies under the Trump administration.
This divergence suggests that Bitcoin may be stepping out of the shadow of tech stocks, gradually establishing itself as an independent market entity.
Unique Performance Amid Trade War Dynamics
Currently, the global economy faces uncertainty due to escalating trade barriers. The Trump administration’s tariff measures have exerted significant pressure on the technology sector, dragging the Nasdaq 100 Index downward. Yet, Bitcoin has not emerged as a direct target of the trade war, instead maintaining resilience in this environment. Augustine Fan, a partner at SignalPlus, a cryptocurrency trading solutions platform, noted, “The aggressive policies of the Trump administration are prompting markets to reassess Bitcoin’s strategic value.
The restructuring of the global economic order is weakening the dominance of the U.S. dollar, and Bitcoin, as a decentralized asset, may gain long-term investment appeal in this transition.” He highlighted that these shifts pose a medium-term challenge to the U.S. as a global capital hub, potentially driving new capital inflows into Bitcoin.
Bohan Jiang, head of over-the-counter options trading at Abra, offered a further perspective: “Bitcoin is not directly impacted by the trade war and may even benefit from it. Current U.S. policies are inadvertently accelerating global de-dollarization trends, and Bitcoin’s volatility could, relative to other assets, diminish, positioning it as a stabilizing factor in uncertainty.” He argued that Bitcoin’s independence from any single nation’s credit system provides it with a distinct advantage amid the diversification of the global monetary framework. This view challenges conventional assumptions about cryptocurrency volatility, underscoring its potential in an evolving financial landscape.
Evidence of Divergence
Market data supports this emerging shift. According to Glassnode, as of early April 2025, the 30-day rolling correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 Index has dropped from 0.85 a year ago to 0.67, indicating a notable weakening of their linkage. Over the past week, Bitcoin recorded a cumulative gain of 3.2%, outperforming the S&P 500’s 1.5% decline and the Nasdaq 100’s 2.8% drop. This performance not only highlights Bitcoin’s resilience but also suggests its role in investment portfolios may be transitioning from peripheral to pivotal.
For institutional and individual investors, this trend merits attention. As trade wars intensify and the U.S. dollar’s dominance faces scrutiny, the risk-hedging capabilities of traditional assets like tech stocks and fixed-income securities are being questioned. In contrast, Bitcoin’s decentralized structure and capped supply of 21 million coins offer resistance to inflation and external interference. Fan emphasized, “Bitcoin has moved beyond being a mere speculative asset; it could serve as an effective tool to hedge risks arising from global economic restructuring.” Its insulation from direct geopolitical influence further bolsters its appeal within diversified investment strategies.